Industry Reports

Deutsche Bank Reports Summaries

080320 Deutsche Bank Report - Dr. Paper's Weekly Wrap Up (3/20/08)

Deutsche Bank - Equity Research

* What's the real price? International Paper acquiring Weyerhaeuser's pkg business for $6.0B.   IP suggest tax benefits w/

NPV of $1.4B & $300MM in integration costs – suggesting net of $4.9B.  IP's mkt cap fell nearly $2.5B.  We like the deal, but believe IP could have gotten lower price.  WY will incur nearly $2B tax bite.

* February containerboard #'s won't help spring price hike.  Box vol's +1.1%, but dipped 3.7% on an avg. wk basis.  Trade sources suggest more easing over past 4-6 wks.  Inventories rose 29K tons m/m - a negative variance of 52K tons versus typical decline of 23K tons.

* Sino-Forest reported another disappointing qtr.  TRE-TSE sold 81K hectares for $260MM ($3,200/hectare), and purchased 41K hectares for $271MM ($6,500/hectare).  Negative spread of $3,300/hectare = largest in history.  HK listing is 2-3 years away.  DB maintains Sell rating & $12 price target.